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07/12/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't long ago that there were some people inside the New York Yankees organization who wanted to deal Robinson Cano.
Some felt he was too lazy in the field. Others didn't like his approach at the plate. His harshest critics noted that his poor starts were likely the result of being unprepared as the season started.
Not helping matters any was a lackadaisical approach to it all. It often looked as if Cano would rather be out at the clubs with his buddy Melky Cabrera than at second base for the most famous franchise in sports.
Things reached rock-bottom for Cano in Anaheim on an August Sunday in 2008. The Yankees were on the verge of being swept by the Angels and manager Joe Girardi called him out, basically saying he needed a better effort from Cano following a ground ball that got past him, leading to a blown save for Mariano Rivera.
A lot of people thought that may have been the final straw for the Yankees and Cano. Even with a strong second half, there were whispers that he was on the block, and that the big finish to the year only enhanced his trade value.
Cano heard the rumors and got the message loud and clear. Cano spent the offseason working with hitting coach Kevin Long and the work paid off, as he started 2009 red-hot, hitting .366 in April, or more than 100 points better than his 2008 start.
Cano had his finest all-around year as a pro last season, hitting .320 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI, while playing a magnificent second base for the World Series Champions. Still, though, there were skeptics. People pointed to his abysmal .207 average with runners in scoring position, that was even worse in similar situations with two outs (.204).
Again, Cano got the message and responded with one of his own.
Following another winter's worth of work with Long, there wasn't a better player in the American League through the first two months of the season than Robinson Cano. He's been the MVP of the best team in baseball in the first half of the year, and that's saying something given the wealth of talent on this team.
Cano hit a blistering .400 in April with eight home runs, coming through time and time again for the Yankees in every spot possible. He has hit .340 with RISP this season, while for the most part carrying a Yankees offense that up until recently was getting nothing from Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira.
People have said that Cano is a batting champion waiting to happen. Often compared to seven-time hitting champion Rod Carew, Cano led the majors in batting for most of the first half. He is 10 points back of Texas' Josh Hamilton as we head into the break, but Cano has always been a second-half player. Don't be shocked if batting title No. 1 comes this year.
If that happens, I am not sure what negative point his critics will try to make this offseason. I am quite certain, though, that Cano will respond accordingly.
GIRARDI TABS TAMPA'S DAVID PRICE TO START
American League manager Joe Girardi named Tampa Bay lefty David Price as his starter for Tuesday night's Mid-Summer Classic, making the 24-year-old hurler the youngest pitcher to start the game since a 23-year-old Dwight Gooden took the ball for the National League in 1988.
"It's a definitely an honor," Price stated. "It hasn't set in yet. I'm very happy to be here."
The top overall pick in the 2007 draft, Price is 12-4 with a 2.42 ERA and 100 strikeouts this season for the Rays. He is one of six pitchers all-time under 25 years of age to reach 12 wins, an ERA below 2.50 and 100 strikeouts heading into the All-Star break, and the first in 25 years since Roger Clemens did so in 1986 (15-2, 2.48 ERA, 146 strikeouts).
He is also the youngest to be leading either the AL or NL in wins and ERA at the All-Star break since 23-year-old Scott Erickson with Minnesota in 1991 (12 wins, 1.83 ERA).
The lineup for the American League will open with Seattle right fielder Ichiro Suzuki, who will be followed by New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter and Detroit first baseman Miguel Cabrera, who is replacing the injured Justin Morneau of Minnesota.
Texas center fielder Josh Hamilton will bat cleanup, with Rangers slugger and former Angels star Vladimir Guerrero next as the designated hitter. Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria will hit sixth, followed by Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer, Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano and Rays left fielder Carl Crawford.
"You look at numbers and how guys have performed," said Girardi when asked how he constructed his lineup. "We have quality RBI guys in the middle of the lineup and speed at the top and bottom."
ADRIAN BELTRE REPLACED BY MICHAEL YOUNG?
It seemed like a innocent comment at the time when Girardi announced that Boston third baseman Adrian Beltre would be replaced on the roster by Texas' Michael Young.
The only problem was that it appears to be news to Beltre, who is dealing with a hamstring issue. I am guessing Beltre will try to give it a go and see how Tuesday's workout goes. Should he not be able to play, I imagine Young would get the nod.
By the way if Beltre does in fact sit the game out, he would be the fourth of the six Red Sox All-Stars replaced because of injury with lefty Jon Lester and designated hitter David Ortiz ranking as the only ones left to suit up.
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The most popular sports to bet on are NFL and college football along with NBA and NCAA basketball. There are multiple betting opportunities within those sports, beginning with the basic wager on a game’s outcome (also called betting the side). College Football Point spreads are used in both football and basketball in an attempt to even the attractiveness of each team in a match-up. ( See our article detailing how and why point spreads are made)
But you could also simply bet on the money line, or straight-up winner of the game. Oddsmakers use the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and less money on the underdog to balance the action on both sides. While money line gambling is an attractive option for football and basketball bettors who only care about picking a winner, it is the primary option for those bettors who enjoy wagering on MLB baseball and individual sports like boxing, tennis, golf and racing events such as NASCAR. ( More details on playing the Money Line)
Another bet across all major team sports including football, basketball, baseball, and hockey involves wagering on the amount of scoring in a game, called an Over/Under total. For example, the Over/Under total on Super Bowl XXXIX was 48, which means a bettor could wager whether there would be more or less than 48 points scored by both teams combined in the game.
The final score of Super Bowl XXXIX was 24-21; the scoring of both teams added up to 45, which means the game went Under . So Under bettors won, and Over bettors lost.
Sports gambling doesn’t end there. Betting sides and totals are the most common wagers available everywhere, but many sportsbooks also offer future bets on big upcoming events like who will win next year’s Super Bowl and what movie will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
The main advantage of futures is that you can get appealing odds by betting far in advance. For example, with NFL futures you often can get much higher odds on a team by betting before the season even starts. A NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl odds might be 20/1 in the preseason; but by midseason, their odds might decrease to 10/1 if they turn out to be legitimate championship contenders.
Involves one individual wager, whether it be on your team to cover the point spread, to win the game straight-up on the money line, or to go over/under the total.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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