2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Tight Ends

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The collegiate tight end has traditionally received little-to-no fanfare, except for the truly exceptional in that category. However, the position remains a quarterback's best friend. Whether it is serving as the ultimate relief valve in the middle of the field, or blocking both in passing and running situations, a talented tight end can create mismatches and make a real difference in any given game.

A look at the top FBS tight ends heading into 2010:

KYLE RUDOLPH, NOTRE DAME

The favorite to win the Mackey Award as 2010 commences, expect Rudolph to flourish in Brian Kelly's offensive system. The 6-6, 265-pounder is coming off a sophomore season in which he flashed great potential, grabbing 33 balls for 364 yards and three TDs. If he remains healthy, he has first-round NFL talent. A big target with wide receiver-type skills, Rudolph is poised for a big season, regardless of who earns the QB job in South Bend. With All-American talent in Michael Floyd on the outside and Rudolph at TE, it is hard to imagine whoever is under center struggling for an extended period of time with the Irish.

WESLYE SAUNDERS, SOUTH CAROLINA

This Gamecock certainly passes the eyeball test. A huge target at 6-6, 273 pounds, Saunders could also receive a first-round grade come draft time. His size and athleticism jump out at you. He hauled in 32 balls as a junior, for 353 yards and three TDs, but his modest numbers had a lot to do with inconsistency under center. With better play from the QB position this year, Saunders could put up bigger stats. South Carolina won't vie for an SEC crown in 2010, but playing in the top conference in the country should allow Saunders to showcase his talents week-in and week-out.

D.J. WILLIAMS, ARKANSAS

Williams had a huge sophomore season in 2008, leading the Razorbacks in receptions (61), receiving yards (723) and receiving TDs (3), en route to All- American accolades and a spot as the school's first-ever Mackey Award semifinalist. His numbers tailed off considerably in 2009, with just 32 receptions for 411 yards and three scores, but with steadier play under center from Heisman hopeful Ryan Mallett, Williams could return to his 2008 form this season. He has decent size (6-2, 250) and is a veteran presence who has seen it all. Arkansas is not an elite SEC squad, but Bobby Petrino has put his stamp on this offense and will undoubtedly utilize his assets to the fullest this year.

LANCE KENDRICKS, WISCONSIN

There is plenty of hype surrounding Wisconsin heading into 2010, as the Badgers are the front-runner for the Big Ten title in the eyes of many. Their talented tight end is one of the reasons for the optimism. At 6-4, 239 pounds, Kendricks is more of an oversized receiver than conventional tight end, and finished 2009 with 29 receptions, 356 yards and three TDs. In his final outing, he torched Miami for seven catches and 128 yards in the Champs Sports Bowl. Head coach Bret Bielema has all the pieces in place in 2010, including a devastating ground game and solid play under center, assets that can only help open things up for Kendricks and allow him to soar to the next level.

ORSON CHARLES, GEORGIA

The Bulldogs have an All-American on the outside in A.J. Green, which should help the development of the ultra-talented Charles, as there will likely be plenty of room for him to roam. The 6-3, 235-pounder isn't especially big for the position, but his talent is in catching the football and making plays after the catch. He showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman in 2009, earning Freshman All-American honors when he appeared in 12 games with three starts and finished the year with 23 receptions, for 374 yards and two TDs. The goal for Georgia is to return to elite status in the SEC, and if the Bulldogs are to attain that, expect Charles to have big numbers when all is said and done.

GEORGE BRYAN, NC STATE

Bryan emerged as the ACC's top tight end in 2009, earning First-Team honors after catching 40 balls, for 422 yards and six TDs. He may not get the publicity that other TEs around the nation get, but the 6-5, 265-pound senior has developed into one of the better players at the position. The Wolfpack are still trying to return to ACC prominence, but may be a year or two away, especially if talented QB Russell Wilson (a recent fourth-round selection of the MLB Colorado Rockies) decides to forgo the rest of his eligibility to concentrate on his baseball career. Still, regardless of who is under center, expect Bryan to see plenty of balls thrown his way.

JOE HALAHUNI, OREGON STATE

Mike Riley's Beavers are an offensive juggernaut, with playmakers at all the skill positions. That includes tight end, where Halahuni reigns supreme. He plays more of an "H" back for OSU, but really came on strong down the stretch in 2009, finishing the year with 35 receptions for 486 yards and three TDs, despite starting just two games. The 6-2, 252-pounder continues to improve and this could be the year he really bursts on the scene. With the talented Rodgers' brothers garnering most of the attention in Corvallis, Halahuni will have a great opportunity to exploit matchups in 2010.

BEN GUIDUGLI, CINCINNATI

Butch Jones takes over for the departed Brian Kelly and has the unenviable task of trying to hold onto the momentum gained by two straight Big East crowns. However, the cupboard isn't exactly bare at Cincinnati and the Bearcats will head into 2010 with a solid QB under center in Zach Collaros and Guidugli at the TE position. Despite being undersized at 6-1, 239 pounds, Guidugli was effective as a junior in 2009, grabbing 27 balls, for 364 yards and three TDs. The younger brother of former UC signal-calling star Gino Guidugli, Ben has steadily improved his numbers each year, and 2010 should be no different. A third conference crown may be too much to ask, but expect Guidugli to remain a key weapon in the Cincinnati arsenal.

KAVARIO MIDDLETON, WASHINGTON

The rebuilding process in the Pacific Northwest continues for head coach Steve Sarkisian, and there is some real talent, especially on the offensive side of the football, that has the Huskies fan base interested. All-American candidate Jake Locker is poised for a huge 2010 before taking his talents to the NFL and with targets like Jermaine Kearse and Middleton, big numbers are likely. The 6-5, 253-pound Middleton showed his potential as a sophomore, finishing 2009 with 26 receptions for 257 yards and three TDs. With Locker feeling more and more comfortable in the pocket, expect Middleton's numbers to increase significantly in 2010.

CHARLIE GANTT, MICHIGAN STATE

Unlike the aforementioned players on this list, Gantt is more of a "lunch- pail" type of tight end. The 6-5, 255-pound Spartan will do anything to contribute, and is a solid blocker who continues to improve as a receiver. Gantt earned All-Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2009, finishing the season with career-highs in receptions (22) and receiving yards (348). MSU finished 2009 just under .500, and if the Spartans fail to build on a six-win season, it won't be due to a lack of effort from Gantt.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Luke Stocker (Tennessee), Mike McNeill (Nebraska), Anthony Miller (California), Kevin Koger (Michigan), Willie Jefferson (Baylor), Jordan Reed (Florida), Jeffrey Anderson (UAB), Kendrick Moeai (Utah).

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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SPORTS BETTING: NFL Football Sportsbook Betting

NFL owners, already life's biggest winners, want to try their luck with the lottery.


That was the news out of their meetings last week, where team bosses voted unanimously to allow stamping state and local lottery tickets with franchise logos, if, ahem, any governments wanted to do a deal.

A shocker: Within days the Pats announced they'd be sponsoring the Massachusetts state lottery, the Skins said they'd slap their sticker on Virginia scratch-offs and the Ravens admitted they were talking to Maryland lottery bosses. In all likelihood, it won't be long before every team is a presenting sponsor of scratch-offs or just plain old pick fives. "The change in policy was approved 32-0," said NFL spokesman Greg Aiello. "So you can expect to see more deals soon."

It's a branding opportunity too big for the owners to ignore, and one a couple of dozen baseball franchises have enjoyed for years. The fact the NFL has been slower to act than those slack-brained Seligites is indicative of its complicated relationship with all forms of gambling. Consider this: Last Thursday, as the Pats and the Redskins finalized their new lottery deals, a lawyer representing the NFL argued before Delaware's Supreme Court that the state's newly signed sports betting law should be repealed.

The NFL betting is the face of opposition to sports gambling . And as much as it would like to share that responsibility with other leagues, that's not going to happen as long as more than 40% of all money legally wagered on games is bet on football. That's why the Brewers can do a multi-million dollar deal with a local casino, or the Celtics can make their own pact with the Mass lottery, and the response is, "Sweet, let's play." But when the NFL does it the stakes are higher, and everyone from NPR's Frank Deford to the Associated Press to the guys blogging at Deadspin will line up to play gotcha.

So I asked Aiello, who surely knew there'd be piling on, how the league can rail against being bait for sports bettors, then allow its franchises to be just that for lotteries, the most insidious and addictive form of gambling around. He emailed me this response: "We are not moral crusaders. NFL personnel are permitted to engage in legal forms of gambling, except for betting on NFL games. We are making a distinction here between the spread of gambling on the outcome of our games and supporting state lottery scratch-off games, that have nothing to do with the outcome of our games."

Here's where I should rip him. But, the thing is, he's right. Not to get Obama on you, but this is a complicated, nuanced issue. As much as lotteries are considered a tax on the poor, the NFL isn't a socially obligated government program -- it's just a business. Scratch-off's help the bottom line, sports betting doesn't. Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors … But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal.

Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors. And it's okay to mutter something obscene when the league pretends gambling doesn't help drive TV ratings and fan interest and put money in owners' pockets. But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal. The Bears should put an orange "C" on every deck of cards dealt at Harrah's in Joliet; the Eagles should slap their logo on roulette wheels at the Borgata in Atlantic City; the Dolphins should hold training camp at the El San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Seriously.

The NFL's problem, when it comes to the gambling world, isn't hypocrisy, it's worse: The bosses lack vision. That's why the league is picking unwinnable fights in Delaware and taking pot shots from critics after making smart sponsorship deals. Roger Goodell and his gang are acting and thinking locally rather than globally, which is rare for them, especially compared to their professional (and amateur) counterparts.

The NBA held its All Star game in Las Vegas and David Stern's kingdom didn't crumble (although the town did bring plenty of players to their knees.) I'd say it's 6 to 5 and pick 'em that Lebron will make a road swing through Sin City before his career is over.

Even the NCAA College Football Betting is more progressive on this issue than the NFL. Several years ago Rachel Newman Baker, college sports' gambling czar, opened a dialogue with Vegas bookmakers to learn about how they do business. She's visited Nevada sports books, studied their operations and listened to how they regulate action. Now she knows she can expect a call from bookmakers, who lose money when sports are fixed, if they think something sketchy is going on in NCAA games. She's not in favor of sports betting, but, as she once told me, "I know it's not going away, either."

The NFL can't seem to accept that. And until it can find peace with the idea, it'll get flack, even when it's right.

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