2009 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/03/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Missouri Valley Conference will have a different top seed for the fourth straight year, as the Northern Iowa Panthers claimed the No.1 spot by virtue of its tie-breaker with the Creighton Bluejays. Both the Panthers and Bluejays shared the regular season crown at 14-4 and each will begin play in the quarterfinal round on Friday.

The Illinois State Redbirds were defeated by both Northern Iowa and Creighton in their last two games, as the team had to settle for third seed with an 11-7 finish. The Bradley Braves went 10-8 during the season and they are the fourth and final team to post a winning league mark.

The Evansville Purple Aces, Wichita State Shockers and Southern Illinois Salukis all ended up with 8-10 marks and the tie-breaker rules were needed to separate the teams. After all was worked out, SIU landed the fifth spot followed by Evansville at six and WSU at seven. The Shockers really lost out on the deal, as they are now forced to play an opening round game. The Indiana State Sycamores and Drake Bulldogs had identical 7-11 league ledgers and will meet each other in an opening round game as well, while Missouri State rounds out the field with the 10th-seed.

The MVC Tournament gets underway on Thursday with ninth-seeded Indiana State taking on eighth-seeded Drake in the opening round. The Sycamores lost twice as many games as they won overall, but they came to life down the stretch, capturing victories in six of their final seven bouts after winning just four their first 23 contests. Indiana State is 17-26 all-time in this event and has won two titles, with the last coming in 2001. As for Drake, it was the darling of the MVC last season, winning both the regular season and tournament titles. The Bulldogs, though, struggled to find consistency this season and will now look for an unlikely run to salvage the campaign.

The opening round wraps up when the 10th-ranked Missouri State Bears lock up with seventh-seeded WSU. The Bears were clearly the league's worst team during the regular season, finishing with just three wins against 15 losses. Despite a 23-17 record in this tourney, Missouri State has won just one title and that came all the way back in 1992. Since that championship, the Bears have reached the finals five times, losing out on each occasion. WSU, on the other hand, is 2-1 all-time in title games in this tourney, but it hasn't brought home the hardware since 1987. The Shockers played well over the second half of the season, but their 2-12 mark away from home leaves a lot to be desired.

The top seeded Panthers await the winner of the Indiana State/Drake match in the first quarterfinal bout on Friday. UNI, which was tabbed sixth in the preseason poll, captured a share of their first-ever MVC regular-season title and went 20-10 overall. The Panthers highest finish prior to this season was a second place tie in 2004, the same year the program won their only title in this event. The top seed in this tourney has only won the title once since 1998, as Drake accomplished that feat last season.

The fifth-seeded Salukis and fourth-seeded Braves clash in the second quarterfinal round match on Friday. SIU had one of its most disappointing campaigns in some time, but it has enjoyed a lot of success in this tourney, going 31-24 all-time. The Salukis' five championships are second most among current members and they last took home the title with a victory over Bradley in the 2006 finals. Speaking f the Braves, they won four of their last five games down the stretch to finish in sole possession of fourth place. Bradley has captured two tourney crowns, most recently in 1988, and is 26-27 lifetime in this event.

The second-seeded Bluejays make their first appearance in the tourney against the winner of the Missouri State/Wichita State affair in the quarterfinals on Friday. With 10 straight wins down the stretch, Creighton earned a share of its 14th regular season title. The Bluejays are the most decorated team in the MVC and have won this tournament a record 10 times, with their last coming in 2007. At 25-6, Creighton owns the league's best overall mark, as it reached the 20-win plateau for the 11th consecutive season.

Quarterfinal round play will come to an end when the sixth-seeded Purple Aces duel with the third-seeded Redbirds. Evansville went from 3-15 in league play last season to 8-10 this year, a drastic improvement. The Purple Aces though, are the only current league member without a title in this event, where they have gone just 4-14. On the flip side, ISU has gone 32-23 all-time in the MVC Tournament and has captured four titles. The Redbirds opened the season with 14 straight wins, but went just 8-8 down the stretch and enter the postseason riding a three-game slide.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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